HOW DID THE PROFESSOR DO? The top pollsters for both parties predicted he would get 14 to 18% on Maine Public TV, although the Republican pollster allowed as how Frary "might" get 25% if "I could take that hat off of him and get enough money to put him on TV". The Professor scored 33%, in the worst GOP year since Watergate. OTHER GOP CHALLENGERS TO MULTI TERM INCUMBENTS IN NEW ENGLAND SCORED LESS THAN
OPEN SEAT - MAINE - Charlie Summers got an astonishing 46% , spent over a million dollars in a very left leaning district but was outspent 2 to 1. Here's hoping Charlie will go again - and we can run Ruth in the 2nd District (there's a spare room at Chez Frary!). Our pitch to the electorate: Reunite the Lovers in Washington!
New Hampshire: Jeb Bradley, a former congressman: attempting to regain his seat against a one-term incumbent. Received 45%. Spent $1,100,000.
New Hampshire: Jennifer Horn, a radio talk-show host ran against a one-term incumbent. Received 41%. Spent $449,000.
Connecticut: David Capiello, a state senator since 1998 and deputy minority leader ran against a one-term incumbent. Received 39%. Spent $1,050,000.
Maine: John Frary, Farmington Selectman ran against a three-term incumbent. Received 33%. Spent $266,000.
Connecticut: Sean Sullivan, former commander of a submarine base ran against a one-term incumbent. Received 32%. Spent $384,000.
Rhode Island: Mark Zaccaria, a former corporate executive and North Kingston councilman ran against a well-financed four-term incumbent. Received 30%. Low budget.
Massachusetts: Richard A. Baker, a businessman and software inventor, ran against a five-term incumbent. Received 30%. Low budget.
Massachusetts: Nathan Bech, a businessman and veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom, ran against an eight-term incumbent. Received 27%. Low budget.
Connecticut: John Visconti, a general contractor and West Hartford Councilman. Ran against a five-term incumbent. Received 26%. Low budget.
Massachusetts: John Cunningham, a20web-based service provider and Ron Paul activist, ran against a thirteen-term incumbent. Received 24%. Low budget.
Rhode Island: Jonathan Scott, a group home counselor, running against Patrick Kennedy a second time. Received 24%. Low budget.
Massachusetts: Earl Henry Sholley, a businessman and army vet, ran against Barney Frank. Received 23%. Low budget.
Connecticut: Boaz Itshaky a doctor. Ran against Rosa DeLauro. Received 21%. Low budget.
RESULTS BY COUNTY
Androscoggin: Bush 43.7%; D’Amboise 33.2% McCain 41.5%; Frary 30.4%
Aroostook: Bush 46.5%; D’Amboise 24%. McCain 44.2%; Frary 27.6%
Franklin: Bush 42.8%; D’Amboise 28.5%. McCain 38.8%; Frary 41.2%
Kennebec Bush 44.6%; D’Amboise 26.8%. McCain 41.7%; Frary 32.2%
Hancock: Bush 43.5%; D’Amboise 28.9%. McCain 39.5%; Frary 33%
Oxford: Bush 45%; D’Amboise 24.2%. McCain 40.7%; Frary 33%
Penobscot: Bush 49.1%; D’Amboise 30.1%. McCain 45%; Frary 32.7%
Piscataquis: Bush 53.3%; D’Amboise 30.5%. McCain 50.8%; Frary 40.8%
Somerset: Bush 47.8%; D’Amboise 30%. McCain 46.1%; Frary 36.4%
Waldo: Bush 41.2%; D’Amboise 31%. McCain 46%; Frary 33.3%
Washington: Bush 49.8%;D’Amboise 29.5%. McCain 48.5%; Frary 33.6%
Greetings from the Frary Movement - Yes We Didn’t
So what happened? It’s really very simple, and
ominous for the future. Those of you who received the
Frary Campaign Book will note that in the history of
Maine since 1952, there is a swing back toward the defeated
party after sharp swing years of approximately 12 points.
In one year since 1952 there was no swing back (1966)
although there was a dramatic swing back to the GOP
nationally in ‘66.
With this history in mind, the Frary campaign was predicated
on a base of 42%, and a sprightly campaign to close
the gap. Indications by September were that the plan
was working - the Republican nominee for President,
who was not tied to those parts of the national GOP
base that made the GOP unpopular in the Northeast, was
running near parity in Maine and ahead nationally. The
Professor, the best stump speaker in the Maine GOP,
was making inroads everywhere among Democrats and the
youth vote, and maintaining his hold on the base. The
campaign had attracted real volunteer talent in a number
of vital campaign expertises, and every goal set by
the campaign at the outset to best the incumbent was
achieved - better literature, better press, better media,
a better debate performance - you name it. We even ended
up raising over $40,000!
And then came the Wall Street meltdown. Our phones
went silent. McCain tanked 5 points in one day in the
national polls, and 12 points in a week in Maine. The
entire electorate had been reminded that the GOP was
the party of Big Government Conservatism. Welfare state
conservatism. The glue that held the Reagan coalition
together, the “Leave us Alone Coalition”,
had been completely jettisoned by Bush and the GOP.
Only Sarah Palin had the verve to say that the government
has created more problems than it has solved. Fierce
fights broke out between factions of the base on the
bailout, pro and con. The down ticket of the GOP never
recovered, although McCain was able to hold Obama to
52% in the finale.
Best bumper sticker seen this year representing the
I'll keep my freedom, my guns, and my money, you can
Vote for McCain/Palin
So instead of a 12 point swing on election day back
to the GOP, we lost that AND got a 6 point swing FURTHER
to the Democrats. Nothing has happened like this in
US history since the Great Depression and FDR.
John got 33% of the vote. Instead of a gain of 12,
we were down 6 more. 12 plus 6 is 18. 18 plus 33 is
51. As in 51% - where we would have been without Barney
Frank and the Wall Street debacle.
How bad was it? There is no longer a single Republican
congressman in all of New England. There is no longer
a single metropolitan area in the US represented by
a Republican congressman. Charlie Summers, who ran a
very strong campaign in the 1st district, should have
netted 12 additional points to add to his 42% effort
against an incumbent in 2004, because now he was running
in an open seat. Instead he only gained 2 points. No
party has won 20+ seats in two consecutive elections
since the Depression - and those were the Democrats,
Susan Collins was the only miracle this year, and she
Will the Republican Party be able to recover? Obama’s
failures, if any, will not be enough. FDR failed at
everything and won almost every election. The main support
groups of the GOP, with the exception of the some conservative
religious groups, are in outright demographic decline.
The fastest growing demographic, Hispanics, has been
alienated (McCain would have won last night if he’d
gotten 44% of the Hispanic vote - and he was our strongest
hope with the Latinos). Our groups do not have command
of the new communications arteries - the Dems main fundraising
website raised $100,000+ million on the net, the main
GOP website raised less than $500 thousand dollars thru
September. The Democrats lead by more than 20 points
among young people. We carried the elderly by 2 points.
A wise man wrote me on the eve of the election:
John Frary may or may not win this election; but in
either case our American Republic will get what we deserve
because we, for better or for worse, are still a government
of the people, by the people, for the people through
our elected representatives.
If we elect Obama, Michaud or others who represent
a collectivist political philosophy, we are instructed
to pray for them that their hearts may be turned. Otherwise,
it may take another American Revolution to put them
out of office.
This could occur through a fundamental realignment
of the political parties whereby the conservatives and
the libertarians form a coalition to take over the Republican
Party similar to the way the socialists and the liberals
took over the Democratic Party.
The true conservative majority in our nation as well
as in Maine may have been lost in part due to the split
between the conservatives and the libertarians, the
presence of leftist liberals in the Republican Party
and the presence of Catholic conservatives in the Democratic
If like-minded conservatives continue to work together,
we can form a new conservative coalition in Maine and
our nation; we can regain limited government, individual
rights and responsibility, free enterprise and a strong
national defense. If we don't, we will have lost the
greatness that was America - at least for a moment in
As long as our Republic stands, we retain the power
to retain or change our representatives in the next
election; we need only to understand and operate our
political system correctly.
Or, as Ben Franklin put it, we must “all hang
together, or we will surely all hang separately”.
Robert Shaffer 876-4070
Chief Consultant to the Frary Campaign